Solar Chaos

Missing Sun Spots

2011-03-03T16:25:00.001-08:00

From NASA March 2, 2011 excerpts include: In 2008-2009 sunspots almost completely disappeared for two years. Solar activity dropped to hundred-year lows; Earth's upper atmosphere cooled and collapsed; the sun’s magnetic field weakened, allowing cosmic rays to penetrate the Solar System in record numbers. It was a big event, and solar physicists openly wondered, where have all the sunspots gone?

While Solar Max is relatively brief, lasting a few years punctuated by episodes of violent flaring, over and done in days, Solar Minimum can grind on for many years. The famous Maunder Minimum of the 17th century lasted 70 years and coincided with the deepest part of Europe's Little Ice Age.

One thing is clear: During long minima, strange things happen. In 2008-2009, the sun’s global magnetic field weakened and the solar wind subsided. Cosmic rays normally held at bay by the sun’s windy magnetism surged into the inner solar system.

At the same time, the heating action of UV rays normally provided by sunspots was absent, so Earth’s upper atmosphere began to cool and collapse.

Missing Sun Spots

2011-03-03T16:25:00.000-08:00

From NASA March 2, 2011 excerpts include: In 2008http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif-2009, sunspots almost completely disappeared for two years. Solar activity dropped to hundred-year lows; Earth's upper atmosphere cooled and collapsed; the sun’s magnetic field weakened, allowing cosmic rays to penetrate the Solar System in record numbers. It was a big event, and solar physicists openly wondered, where have all the sunspots gone?

While Solar Max is relatively brief, lasting a few years punctuated by episodes of violent flaring, over and done in days, Solar Minimum can grind on for many years. The famous Maunder Minimum of the 17th century lasted 70 years and coincided with the deepest part of Europe's Little Ice Age.

One thing is clear: During long minima, strange things happen. In 2008-2009, the sun’s global magnetic field weakened and the solar wind subsided. Cosmic rays normally held at bay by the sun’s windy magnetism surged into the inner solar system.

At the same time, the heating action of UV rays normally provided by sunspots was absent, so Earth’s upper atmosphere began to cool and collapse.

Missing Sunspots

2011-03-03T16:18:00.000-08:00

From NASA March 2, 2011 excerpts include: In 2008-2009, sunspots almost completely disappeared for two years. Solar activity dropped to hundred-year lows; Earth's upper atmosphere cooled and collapsed; the sun’s magnetic field weakened, allowing cosmic rays to penetrate the Solar System in record numbers. It was a big event, and solar physicists openly wondered, where have all the sunspots gone?

While Solar Max is relatively brief, lasting a few years punctuated by episodes of violent flaring, over and done in days, Solar Minimum can grind on for many years. The famous Maunder Minimum of the 17th century lasted 70 years and coincided with the deepest part of Europe's Little Ice Age.

One thing is clear: During long minima, strange things happen. In 2008-2009, the sun’s global magnetic field weakened and the solar wind subsided. Cosmic rays normally held at bay by the sun’s windy magnetism surged into the inner solar system.

At the same time, the heating action of UV rays normally provided by sunspots was absent, so Earth’s upper atmosphere began to cool and collapse.

Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low

2010-01-07T20:41:00.000-08:00

From Watts Up With That Jan 7, 2009
Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low

...sunspots are just one proxy.. for magnetic activity of the sun. It is the magnetic activity of the sun which is central to Svensmark’s theory of galactic cosmic ray modulation, which may affect cloud cover formation on earth, thus affecting global temperatures.
Lower magnetic activity of the sun lets more GCR’s into our solar system, which produce microscopic cloud seed trails ... in our atmosphere, resulting in more cloud cover, resulting in a cooler planet.

With the Ap index dwindling to a wisp of magnetism, it bolsters the argument made by Livingston and Penn that sunspots may disappear altogether by 2015.

The theory goes that once the magnetic strength falls below 1500 gauss, sunspots will become invisible to us.

AP INDEX
For ap index see NOAA
Daily regular magnetic field variation arise from current systems caused by regular solar radiation changes. Other irregular current systems produce magnetic field changes caused by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, by the magnetosphere itself, by the interactions between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and by the ionosphere itself.

Magnetic activity indices were designed to describe variation in the geomagnetic field caused by these irregular current systems.

December Solar Activity

2009-12-27T19:37:00.000-08:00

Seems like we've heard this before? Say it enough times, some day they will be right. Let's wait and see.
Interesting definition of "flurry".

From Space Weather.com for Dec 27
SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: 2009 is ending with a flurry of sunspots. The latest is sunspot 1039, which formed yesterday and is now crackling with low-level solar flares.
So far, 65% of the days in December have brought sunspots--a sharp increase in percentages compared to earlier months of 2009 when sunspots were surpassingly rare. All six of December's sunspot groups have been members of new Solar Cycle 24. These numbers could herald the sun's awakening from the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century and a livelier sun in 2010. Stay tuned.

A few of many reminders
From SpaceWeather.com June 23, 2009
"No one knows exactly how the sun's deep jet streams boost the sunspot count, but they do. As a result, this week's sunspot activity might herald more to come. Stay tuned for updates".

June 17, 2009
The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead."

July 5
The most active sunspot of the year so far is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere.

We could keep going:
NASA May 20, 2003
Hathaway predicts cycle 24 to begin Dec 2006

Cosmic Ray Inflow and Climate Change

2009-12-09T13:41:00.000-08:00

Interesting video of Jasper Kirby CERN lecture on research to study the impact of comsic radiation on climate.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/175641-climategate-revolt-of-the-physicists

Physicists have discovered that changes in the rate of cosmic ray inflow cause climate change and that solar activity shields the earth from cosmic rays. They haven't completely worked out the mechanism yet, but they think it has to do with cosmic rays causing cloud formation and clouds reflecting sunlight back into space.

Sunspots may vanish by 2015.

2009-12-09T12:07:00.000-08:00

This prediction was originally submitted and rejected for publication in 2005

Sunspots may vanish by 2015.
William Livingston,1 Matthew Penn1

SOLAR MINIMUM:

2009-12-02T20:53:00.000-08:00

Space Weather Dec 2, 2009
SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is in the pits of a very deep solar minimum. Many researchers thought the sunspot cycle had hit bottom in 2008 when the sun was blank 73% of the time. Not so. 2009 is on the verge of going even lower. So far this year, the sun has been blank 75% of the time, and only a serious outbreak of sunspots over the next few weeks will prevent 2009 from becoming the quietest year in a century. Solar minimum continues.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 9 days
2009 total: 252 days (75%)
Since 2004: 763 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

A Quiet Sun, a Cold Winter

2009-11-06T14:20:00.000-08:00

A Quiet Sun, a Cold Winter

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a colder-than-normal winter. One contributing factor is sunspots—or the lack of them!

This year and next, sunspot activity will be very, very light. Whenever this phenomenon has occurred in the past, the result has been a cooling influence on Earth. Solar experts believe that the Sun will remain calm for another year.
See sunspot activity for 2009.

Additionally from the Old Farmers Almanac
In 2008, the Sun set some new records:

* A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Decreased solar winds allow more galactic cosmic rays into the inner solar system. This poses health risk for astronauts. Another effect is fewer aurorae, or northern lights, on Earth.
* A 12-year low in solar "irradiance": The sun's diminished brightness has already lead to a dramatic decrease in extreme UV wavelengths. This means that Earth's upper atmosphere is less heated by the Sun, which may lead to a slight global cooling. Another effect is that satellites operate longer due to less atmospheric drag. Space junk, however, stays in orbit longer (a risk to satellites).
* A 55-year low in solar radio emissions: Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field.

Helio Magnetic Field since 1835

2009-10-08T11:43:00.000-07:00

From Watts Up with That

http://www.leif.org/research/IDV09.pdf

Excerpts include:
we appear to be at the lowest heliomagnetic field strength in the record

Cycle 23 looks remarkably like cycle 13, including the very deep solar minimum following both cycles, likely presaging a weak cycle 24 as predicted from the solar polar fields [Svalgaard et al., 2005]. It is clear that we are returning to conditions prevailing a century ago. It seems likely that other solar parameters such as Total Solar Irradiance [Fröhlich, 2009] and cosmic ray modulation [Steinhilber et al.,2009] are reverting to similar conditions.

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High

2009-10-01T08:24:00.000-07:00

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High

NASA Sept 29, 2009
Excerpts include:
"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech.
The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times,

1. The sun's magnetic field is weak. "There has been a sharp decline in the sun's interplanetary magnetic field down to 4 nT (nanoTesla) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT," he says.

2. The solar wind is flagging. "Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low,"

Solar wind heating Earth

2009-09-10T16:33:00.000-07:00

UCLA Newsroom
Scientists discover surprise in Earth's upper atmosphere

Excerpts include:
UCLA atmospheric scientists have discovered a previously unknown basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere

The sun, in addition to emitting radiation, emits a stream of ionized particles called the solar wind that affects the Earth and other planets in the solar system. The solar wind, which carries the particles from the sun's magnetic field, known as the interplanetary magnetic field......Charged particles carry currents, which cause significant modifications in the Earth's magnetosphere

"The energy of the particles and the fields in the magnetosphere can vary by large amounts. It can be 10 times higher or 10 times lower from day to day, even from half-hour to half-hour.

"So rather than the picture of the connection between the magnetic field of the sun and the Earth controlling the transfer of energy by the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere, something else is happening that is equally interesting.

Aug 28,2009 No Sunspots

2009-08-28T12:08:00.000-07:00

From SpaceWeather.com

August 28th, today. But it could have been taken on any day of the past seven weeks. For all that time, the face of the sun has looked exactly the same--utterly blank.

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest string of blank suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days back in July, Aug. and Sept. of 2008. If the current trend continues for only four more days, the record will shift to 2009. It's likely to happen; the sun remains eerily quiet and there are no sunspots in the offing. Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 48 days
2009 total: 190 days (79%)
Since 2004: 701 days

Solar wind
speed: 333.0 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3

ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING?

2009-08-22T11:40:00.000-07:00

SpaceWeather.com August 22,2009
ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING? Sunspots are made of magnetism. The "firmament" of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun's fiery depths. Without magnetism, there would be no sunspots.
According to Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, sunspot magnetic fields are waning. The two respected solar astronomers have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992.

Extrapolating their data into the future suggests that sunspots could completely disappear within decades. While the data of Livingston and Penn are widely thought to be correct, far-reaching extrapolations may be premature.

Also note:
QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. The sun is entering its 43rd consecutive day with no sunspots, and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 42 days
2009 total: 184 days (79%)
Since 2004: 695 days

Solar wind
speed: 514.1 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?

2009-08-22T11:35:00.000-07:00

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?
EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
July 29,2009

Excerpts include:
But something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle.

although the Sun’s magnetic polarity has reversed and the new solar cycle has been detected, most of the new cycle’s spots have been tiny “pores” without penumbrae

Four years after the first draft paper, the predicted cycle- independent dearth in
sunspot numbers has proven accurate.

41 Days spotless

2009-08-21T14:43:00.000-07:00

Space Weather .com Aug 21,2009

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 41 days
2009 total: 183 days (79%)
Since 2004: 694 days

Solar wind
speed: 470.6 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3

entering its 41st consecutive day

2009-08-20T19:22:00.000-07:00

From Space Weather.com Aug 20,2009

BLANK SUN: The sun is entering its 41st consecutive day without sunspots. This remarkable string of blank suns shows that we are still in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in a century. If the streak continues for 11 more days, it will match the longest blank spell of the current cycle.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 40 days
2009 total: 182 days (79%)
Since 2004: 693 days

Solar wind
speed: 554.2 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3

38 spotless days Aug 18,2009

2009-08-18T15:12:00.000-07:00

Space Weather Aug 18, 2009
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 38 days
2009 total: 180 days (79%)
Since 2004: 691 days

The sun is blank--no sunspots.

Solar wind
speed: 340.9 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3

2009-08-15T17:32:00.000-07:00

Interesting YouTube from WattsUpWith That
Very interested to hear the Oct 28,2009 press conference on the methods

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iPg5Z_hVlE&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2009%2F08%2F15%2Flivingston-and-penn-in-eos-are-sunspots-different-during-this-solar-minimum%2F&feature=player_embedded#t=449

Food Firms Warn of Sugar Shortage

2009-08-13T16:58:00.000-07:00

WSJ August 14, 2009
Food Firms Warn of Sugar Shortage

Excerpts include:

Prices of sugar futures contracts have risen 95% so far this year, hitting a 28-year high in recent days. On Wednesday, raw-sugar futures jumped 4.8% to 22.97 cents a pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

Prices are up because the world is consuming more sugar than farmers are producing. One big factor: The world's largest sugar producer, Brazil, is diverting huge amounts of its cane crop to making ethanol fuel. Likewise, the food industry has complained bitterly in recent years about the U.S. ethanol industry's ravenous appetite for corn, which helped push up prices for that key ingredient too.

Aug 13, 2009 Thirty Three Days w/o Spots

2009-08-13T16:50:00.000-07:00

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 33 days
2009 total: 175 days (78%)
Since 2004: 686 days

The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Solar wind
speed: 331.7 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3

BLANK IS BEAUTIFUL:

2009-08-06T12:16:00.000-07:00

From Space Weather Aug 6, 2009

BLANK IS BEAUTIFUL: The sun is entering its 27th consecutive day of spotlessness, quiet and calm. That's okay. According to astrophotographer Greg Piepol of Rockville, Maryland, blank is beautiful

Indeed, the sun is being remarkably quiet. After a promising eruption of sunspots in early July raised hopes that Solar Cycle 24 was gaining strength, the sun reversed course and retreated to peaceful slumber. Only four weeks after behemoth sunspot 1024 amazed onlookers, solar minimum has never seemed deeper. The sun's 77% rate of spotlessness in 2009 confirms the ongoing minimum as a century class event.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 26 days
2009 total: 168 days (77%)
Since 2004: 679 days

Cycle 25?

2009-08-03T17:37:00.001-07:00

From Watts Up With That Aug 1, 2009

Some speculation that solar cycle 25 has already begun

23 days w/o sunspots

2009-08-03T17:29:00.000-07:00

Aug 3, 2009

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 23 days
2009 total: 165 days (77%)
Since 2004: 676 days

Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Solar wind
speed: 378.5 km/sec
density: 5.9 protons/cm3

July 22 Solar eclipse

2009-07-20T19:31:00.000-07:00

NASA July 20,2009
The longest solar eclipse of the 21st century takes place this Wednesday, July 22nd. The path of totality crosses many major cities, setting the stage for possibly the best-observed eclipse in human history.

NCAR: Solar cycle linked to global climate

2009-07-16T17:51:00.000-07:00

NCAR: Solar cycle linked to global climate

From WattsUpWithThat.com July 16

A couple excerpts include:
Scientists have known for years that long-term solar variations affect certain weather patterns, including droughts and regional temperatures.

Establishing a key link between the solar cycle and global climate, research led by scientists at the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., shows that maximum solar activity and its aftermath have impacts on Earth that resemble La Niña and El Niño events in the tropical Pacific Ocean

“These results are striking in that they point to a scientifically feasible series of events that link the 11-year solar cycle with ENSO, the tropical Pacific phenomenon that so strongly influences climate variability around the world,” says Jay Fein, program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences. “The next step is to confirm or dispute these intriguing model results with observational data analyses and targeted new observations.”

“We have fleshed out the effects of a new mechanism to understand what happens in the tropical Pacific when there is a maximum of solar activity,” says NCAR scientist Gerald Meehl, the paper’s lead author. “When the sun’s output peaks, it has far-ranging and often subtle impacts on tropical precipitation and on weather systems around much of the world.”

They found that, as the sun’s output reaches a peak, the small amount of extra sunshine over several years causes a slight increase in local atmospheric heating, especially across parts of the tropical and subtropical Pacific where Sun-blocking clouds are normally scarce. That small amount of extra heat leads to more evaporation, producing extra water vapor. In turn, the moisture is carried by trade winds to the normally rainy areas of the western tropical Pacific, fueling heavier rains. As this climatic loop intensifies, the trade winds strengthen. That keeps the eastern Pacific even cooler and drier than usual, producing La Niña-like conditions.

Sunspot 1024

2009-07-05T08:49:00.000-07:00

The most active sunspot of the year so far is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere. Sunspot 1024 has at least a dozen individual dark cores and it is crackling with B-class solar flares.The magnetic polarity of sunspot 1024 identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24.

Sunspots July 1, 2009

2009-07-01T08:32:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, a sunspot emerged, but it disappeared so fast that it did not receive an official number.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2009 total: 140 days (77%)
Since 2004: 651 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Solar wind
speed: 401.0 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A0 1520 UT Jul01
24-hr: A0 0805 UT Jul01

Sunspots June 30, 2009

2009-06-30T17:10:00.000-07:00

Observers are reporting a new sunspot forming near the sun's southeastern limb. It appears to be a member of Solar Cycle 24.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2009 total: 138 days (77%)
Since 2004: 649 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

1022 and 1023 are members of Solar Cycle 24

2009-06-23T21:09:00.000-07:00

Sunspot 1022 is rapidly fading away. Both 1022 and 1023 are members of Solar Cycle 24.
The magnetic polarity of sunspot 1023 identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24

From SpaceWeather.com June 23, 2009
"No one knows exactly how the sun's deep jet streams boost the sunspot count, but they do. As a result, this week's sunspot activity might herald more to come. Stay tuned for updates".

Cycle 24 Update, Again

2009-06-17T16:34:00.000-07:00

Yet another NASA post on the imminent start of cycle 24

NASA June 17, 2009
Excerpts include:
"The sun is in the pits of a century-class solar minimum, and sunspots have been puzzlingly scarce for more than two years. Now, for the first time, solar physicists might understand why.

The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun's internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not "broken."

The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead."

However, lets review other recent NASA and NOAA releases on cycle 24 sun spots
May 8 2008 NOAA
"The panel also predicted that the lowest sunspot number between
cycles—or solar minimum—occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24."

Our summary of prior predictions:

Nov 8, 2008: New-cycle sunspot 1007 has disappeared over the sun's western limb.

It is informative to review the solar model predictions for cycle 24 sunspots.

NASA May 20, 2003
Hathaway predicts cycle 24 to begin Dec 2006

NASA Oct 2004
"Hathaway and colleague Bob Wilson, both working at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, believe they've found a simple way to predict the date of the next solar minimum. "So, using Hathaway and Wilson's simple rule, solar minimum should arrive in late 2006. That's about a year earlier than previously thought. It'll give us a chance to see if our 'spotless sun' method for predicting solar minimum really works.""

September 15, 2005
"Actually, solar minimum, the lowest point of the sun's 11-year activity cycle, isn't due until 2006..... Hathaway is waiting for 2006 when solar minimum finally arrives."

NOAA Jan 6, 2006
The next sunspot minimum is forecast to occur in late 2006 through mid 2007.

March 6, 2006
For almost the entire month of February 2006 the sun was utterly blank. What's going on? NASA solar physicist David Hathaway explains: "Solar minimum has arrived."

NASA March 10, 2006
March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived.
"This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."
"Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."
"he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""

March 2006
That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong - perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.

NASA August 15, 2006
"We've been waiting for this," says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight in Huntsville, Alabama. "A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning." The next cycle, Solar Cycle 24, should begin "any time now," returning the sun to a stormy state.

NASA Dec 21, 2006
"Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."
"Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco."

"According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."

Dec 14, 2007 NASA
It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

NOAA April 25, 2007
"The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March [2008] and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"

NOAA April 27, 2007
NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE
"Expected to start last fall [2007], the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker."
“The Space Environment Center’s space weather alerts, warnings, and forecasts are a critical component of NOAA’s seamless stewardship of the Earth’s total environment, from the Sun to the sea,” said retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., NOAA administrator."
Jan 2008; First sunspot of Cycle 24 - "Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun."
With the appearance of Sunspot 981 -- a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot -- on Friday, January 4, experts at NASA and NOAA said that Cycle 24 is now here. "This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of the Space Weather Prediction Center, part of NOAA. "In this case, it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years."
"NASA's Hathaway, along with colleague Robert Wilson at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco last month, said that Solar Cycle 24 "looks like it's going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago."

NASA March 28, 2008
"Barely three months after forecasters announced the beginning of new Solar Cycle 24, old Solar Cycle 23 has returned."

NOAA & NASA June 27, 2008
"The panel expects solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012."

NASA July 11, 2008
"The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."
"There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."
"some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year."

"It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."

November 7, 2008, NASA
"After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

"From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days."

Sunspots

2009-06-15T19:13:00.000-07:00

From Watts Up With That June 13, 2009

Excerpts include:
nothing more than tiny spots, or “pores”, have been seen for some time
In the current solar minimum the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1914
the magnetic field strengths in umbrae were on average decreasing with time independent of the sunspot cycle
may be that spots are simply getting smaller
A simple linear extrapolation of our magnetic data suggests that sunspots might largely vanish by 2015, assuming the 1800 Gauss lower limit
The brightness and magnetic fields of large sunspots had earlier been discovered to change in-sync with the solar cycle
All new cycle number 24 spots that we have observed have been tiny “pores” without penumbrae

Solar Variability and Climate Cycles

2009-06-10T18:54:00.000-07:00

From Climate Change Reconsidered June 2009

Chapter 5 - Solar Variability and Climate Cycles

Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing number of scientists who say variations in solar activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of climate change. We describe the evidence of a solar-climate link and how these scientists have grappled with the problem of finding a specific mechanism that translates small changes in solar activity into larger climate effects. We summarize how they may have found the answer in the relationships between the sun, cosmic rays and reflecting clouds.

Chapter 5 Key Findings
* The IPCC claims the radiative forcing due to changes in the solar output since 1750 is +0.12 Wm-2, an order of magnitude smaller than its estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1.66 Wm-2. A large body of research suggests that the IPCC has got it backwards, that it is the sun’s influence that is responsible for the lion’s share of climate change during the past century and beyond.

* The total energy output of the sun changes by only 0.1 percent during the course of the solar cycle, although larger changes may be possible over periods of centuries. On the other hand, the ultraviolet radiation from the sun can change by several percent over the solar cycle - as indeed noted by observing changes in stratospheric ozone. The largest changes, however, occur in the intensity of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field.

* Reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close correlation between solar magnetic activity and solar irradiance (or brightness), on the one hand, and temperatures on earth, on the other. Those correlations are much closer than the relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature.

* Cosmic rays could provide the mechanism by which changes in solar activity affect climate. During periods of greater solar magnetic activity, greater shielding of the earth occurs, resulting in less cosmic rays penetrating to the lower atmosphere, resulting in fewer cloud condensation nuclei being produced, resulting in fewer and less reflective low-level clouds occurring, which leads to more solar radiation being absorbed by the surface of the earth, resulting (finally) in increasing near-surface air temperatures and global warming.

* Strong correlations between solar variability and precipitation, droughts, floods, and monsoons have all been documented in locations around the world. Once again, these correlations are much stronger than any relationship between these weather phenomena and CO2.

* The role of solar activity in causing climate change is so complex that most theories of solar forcing must be considered to be as yet unproven. But it would also be appropriate for climate scientists to admit the same about the role of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in driving recent global warming.

Variable Solar Irradiance

2009-06-07T20:21:00.000-07:00

Daily Tech

A study from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland looking at climate data over the past century has concluded that solar variation has made a significant impact on the Earth's climate. The report concludes that evidence for climate changes based on solar radiation can be traced back as far as the Industrial Revolution.

Science Daily
Total solar irradiance is variable over many different timescales, ranging from seconds to centuries due to changes in solar activity.
The solar irradiance measurement is much higher during solar maximum, when sunspot cycle and solar activity is high, versus solar minimum, when the sun is quiet and there are usually no sunspots.

Cycle 24 Predictions May 25, 2009

2009-05-25T12:36:00.000-07:00

Space Weather May 25, 2009
"According to a panel of NOAA and NASA experts, Solar Cycle 24 will awaken in late 2009 or early 2010 and surge to a peak in May 2013. This could be the beginning."

You can review recent predictions in the prior post and the May 8, press release.

NOAA: Mild Solar Storm Season Predicted

2009-05-08T18:53:00.000-07:00

NOAA May 8, 2009
NOAA: Mild Solar Storm Season Predicted
"Although its peak is still four years away, a new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA space weather prediction center and funded by NASA. Despite the prediction, Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm."

"The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began."

"An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012"

However, it is worth reviewing their recent track record of predictions for cycle 24 sunspots.

NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24

2009-05-08T18:40:00.000-07:00

May 8, 2009
NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24

"The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a daily sunspot number of 90. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began."

"The panel also predicted that the lowest sunspot number between
cycles—or solar minimum—occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24. If the December prediction holds up, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum."

"An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun since the last prediction has led the panel to a consensus that the next cycle will be "moderately weak.""

However, it is worth reviewing their recent track record of predictions for cycle 24 sunspots.

Follow the Sun to the Landscheidt Minimum

2009-05-01T21:26:00.000-07:00

Excerpts from post on Climate of Our Future blog April 30, 2009

Theodore Scheidt calculated the change of the torque on the sun caused by the planet over time, the theory and the accelerated and slowed down in the solar system in the solar core, which in turn impacts on the solar activity, which manifests itself in the sun spots . So, he theorized that the next process of the solar brakes would in 1990 and that the solar cycle 24 would be a Maunder Minimum character with a deep, at least in the year 2022 and again in 2030. If he is correct, there is too much colder times before.

Given the current quietness of the sun and its low magnetic field, combined with the late start of cycle 24 with even a false start, it appears that the sun has slowed it's internal dynamo with land Scheidt prediction of more than one decade.

Can solar variability influence climate

2009-05-01T21:17:00.000-07:00

Excerpts from Australian Antarctic Division

Scientists have long searched for linkages between solar variability and weather. The sun varies on a wide-range of time scales, most dramatically on an ~11 year cycle which is strongly associated with the number and extent of sunspots on the sun and the occurrence of aurora at high latitudes.

Any mechanism for changing weather and climate by solar variability must involve influencing the distribution of the energy within the weather system. One possible mechanism is via the Earth's geoelectric field.

Cosmic ray ionisation, the magnitude of which can be controlled by solar activity via the solar wind, modulates the resistance of this global electric circuit in which thunderstorms are the generators. By controlling the ease with thunderstorms can dissipate current it is feasible that solar activity may modulate the intensity of thunderstorm development, thus modulating the distribution of energy within the meteorological system.

Additional solar influences on the geoelectric field occur at high latitudes, via the same processes that generate the aurora. In conjunction with Russian and American colleagues, we presently measure the geoelectric field at the Russian station, Vostok, on the Antarctic plateau. We have shown that solar variability can influence the geoelectric field measured at ground level in polar regions, and are continuing to develop research instrumentation and methods of testing the viability of a solar variability influence on weather and climate through modulation of the geoelectric circuit.

Mercury

2009-05-01T21:10:00.000-07:00

A few excerpts from NASA report on Mercury flyby.

April 30, 2009: A NASA spacecraft gliding over the surface of Mercury has revealed that the planet's atmosphere, magnetosphere, and its geological past display greater levels of activity than scientists first suspected.

"This second Mercury flyby provided a number of new findings," said Sean Solomon, the probe's principal investigator from the Carnegie Institution of Washington. "One of the biggest surprises was how strongly [Mercury's magnetosphere] had changed from what we saw during the first flyby in January 2008."

Gusty solar wind buffeting the global bubble of magnetism can potentially trigger magnetic storms and other space weather-related phenomena.

"The high rate of solar wind energy input was evident in the great amplitude of the plasma waves and the large magnetic structures measured by the spacecraft's magnetometer throughout the encounter."

Our Sun is in the news again for the eerie quiet.

2009-04-04T11:43:00.000-07:00

Our Sun is in the news again for the eerie quiet.

From eHam.net April 3, 2009

Excerpts include:
"The Sun is surprisingly calm by several measurements -- including the large number of spotless days -- average 10.7 cm solar flux, and low solar wind pressure."

"we are witnessing a 50-year low in solar wind pressure -- a 20-percent drop since the mid 1990s. Of course the advantage to this is geomagnetic storms are very rare. But that is a disadvantage for VHF operators who enjoy using aurora to propagate radio waves."

"The news release at http://tinyurl.com/czphz7 claims that 10.7 cm solar flux is at a 55-year low, although this figure has only been tracked for the past 65 or so years. They also tell us that 2008 had more spotless days than any year since 1913 (see http://tinyurl.com/cwfddc)."

Deep Solar Minimum

2009-04-01T20:18:00.000-07:00

NASA 4.1.2009
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

Excerpts Include:

There were no sunspots observed [2008]on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008. Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).

It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.
"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Above: The sunspot cycle from 1995 to the present. The jagged curve traces actual sunspot counts. Smooth curves are fits to the data and one forecaster's predictions of future activity. Credit: David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC.

Quiet suns come along every 11 years or so. It's a natural part of the sunspot cycle, discovered by German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe in the mid-1800s.

But is it supposed to be this quiet? In 2008, the sun set the following records:
A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990s—the lowest point since such measurements began in the 1960s. The solar wind helps keep galactic cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. With the solar wind flagging, more cosmic rays are permitted to enter, resulting in increased health hazards for astronauts. Weaker solar wind also means fewer geomagnetic storms and auroras on Earth.

A 12-year low in solar "irradiance": Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and a whopping 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996.

Earth's upper atmosphere is heated less by the sun and it is therefore less "puffed up." Satellites in low Earth orbit experience less atmospheric drag, extending their operational lifetimes.

Above: Space-age measurements of the total solar irradiance (brightness summed across all wavelengths). This plot, which comes from researcher C. Fröhlich, was shown by Dean Pesnell at the Fall 2008 AGU meeting

A 55-year low in solar radio emissions: After World War II, astronomers began keeping records of the sun's brightness at radio wavelengths. Records of 10.7 cm flux extend back all the way to the early 1950s. Radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955: plot. Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field. No one is certain, however, because the source of these long-monitored radio emissions is not fully understood.

All these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird", "extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually intense solar maxima.

"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."

Deep calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913, for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to last at least another year.

In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, ACE, Wind, TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.

Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply,

No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.
Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013.
But like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong.

Cycle 24 is BIG - 200 New Sunspots emerged today

2009-04-01T11:10:00.000-07:00

April Fools day title. Now the facts:

SpaceWeather.com April 1,2009

NO SUNSPOTS: As April begins, the sun has been spotless for 24 consecutive days. How long can the blank spell continue? The longest stretch of blank suns in the past 100 years was 92 days in April, May and June of 1913. To match that streak, today's sun must remain spotless until early June 2009. That's a lot of quiet; stay tuned

Still no sunspots

2009-03-30T18:57:00.001-07:00

space weather.com 3/30/09

SOLAR ACTIVITY: With no sunspots to break the monotony, the face of the sun has been blank and quiet for nearly a month. The edge of the sun is another matter. "There are plenty of prominences dancing around the solar limb," reports Pete Lawrence, who sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Selsey, UK:

Deep Solar Minimum

2009-03-22T22:47:00.000-07:00

NASA - "We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum".

Space Weather.com March 23, 2009
"DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century. A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned. We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum."

Looking back:
November 7, 2008, NASA
"After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

"From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days."

NASA: A LITTLE SOLAR ACTIVITY

2009-03-17T14:47:00.000-07:00

Space Weather.com March 17, 2009 - we are in deepest solar minimum in over 100 years.

Space Weather.com
A LITTLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in almost 100 years. At such a calm time, even a little solar activity is remarkable. Here it is. SOHO recorded the movie on March 16th; it shows a minor CME billowing away from the sun's eastern limb. When the sun is active, we see several such CMEs on a daily basis. Now, the rate is about one per month. That's very little solar activity.

CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 24

2009-03-11T20:41:00.000-07:00

NASA notes, "in retrospect" that solar cycle 24 is different with lower solar output
"This is evidenced in records of both solar activity and the response to it of the terrestrial space environment."

B.9 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 24
Clarified March 10, 2009: All references to "Solar Cycle 23" have been updated to "Solar Cycle 24." Reference in Section 1 to "Solar Cycle 22" has been updated to "Solar Cycle 23."
1. Scope of Program
In 2009, we are in the midst of the minimum of solar activity that marks the end of Solar Cycle 24. As this cycle comes to an end we are recognizing, in retrospect, that the Sun has been extraordinarily quiet during this particular Solar Cycle minimum. This is evidenced in records of both solar activity and the response to it of the terrestrial space environment. For example:
Causes – Solar output
•Lowest sustained solar radio flux since the F 10.7 proxy was created in 1947;
•Solar wind global pressure the lowest observed since the beginning of the Space age;
•Unusually high tilt angle of the solar dipole throughout the current solar minimum;
•Solar wind magnetic field 36% weaker than during the minimum of Solar Cycle 23;
•Effectively no sunspots;
•The absence of a classical quiescent equatorial streamer belt; and
•Cosmic rays at near record-high levels.

Consequences
•With the exception of 1934, 2008 had more instances of 3-hr periods with Kp=0 than any other year since the creation of the index in 1932;
•Cold contracted ionosphere and upper atmosphere; and
•Remarkably persistent recurrent geomagnetic activity.

Thus, we have an unprecedented opportunity to characterize the quiet/background state of the heliosphere when the solar source function is as close to the ground state as it has been in the modern era.

NASA’s Heliophysics Division wishes to facilitate study of this special period. This ROSES element thus solicits proposals to study the Causes and Consequences of the Minimum of Solar Cycle 24 (CCMSC). Proposals are encouraged that take advantage of this opportunity with studies of domains ranging from the center of the Sun through terrestrial and planetary space environments to the boundary of the heliosphere. High priority will be given to studies addressing the interaction between various regimes.

Taking maximum advantage of this opportunity will require interaction between specialists in different regimes. Selected Principal Investigators will have responsibilities for both their own specific research and for participation in a yearly workshop where all the CCMSC investigators will be brought together to explore the implications of their own work for other regions. Proposals should address both of these responsibilities.

2. Programmatic Information
2.1 Budget Information
The Heliophysics Division has identified a total of $4.5M for support of this opportunity, available over a three-year period. We thus expect annual funding of $1.5M to be available for support CCMSC investigations. This is a one time only solicitation.

2.2 Evaluation Criteria
Proposals will be evaluated according to the criteria specified in section C.2 of the NASA Guidebook for Proposers. These criteria are intrinsic merit, relevance to NASA’s objectives, and cost realism/reasonableness.
The determination of a proposal’s relevance shall include the contribution of the proposed investigation to understanding the causes and/or consequences of the very low solar activity minimum of Solar Cycle 24, including also the degree to which it addresses the interaction between various regimes.

2.3 Education and Public Outreach Opportunities
NASA policy strongly encourages participation in Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) activities by members of the science community. You may be eligible to propose a supplemental Education or Outreach effort if your research proposal is selected for award. The research award must have more than 15 months remaining at the time of submission of the supplement proposal. For additional details concerning the submission of Outreach or Education supplement proposals, please see Supplemental Outreach Awards for ROSES Investigators (Appendix E.5) and Supplemental Education Awards for ROSES Investigators (Appendix E.6).

3. Summary of Key Information
Expected annual program budget for new awards
$1.5 M
Number of new awards pending adequate proposals of merit
10 – 15
Maximum duration of awards
3 years
Due date for Notice of Intent to propose (NOI)
April 17, 2009
Due date for proposals
June 5, 2009
Planning date for start of investigation
6 months after proposal due date.
B.9-2
B.9-3
Page limit for the central Science-Technical-Management section of proposal
15 pp; See also Chapter 2 of the 2009 Guidebook for Proposers.
Relevance
This program is relevant to the heliophysics strategic goals and subgoals in NASA’s Strategic Plan; see Table 1 and the references therein. Proposals that are relevant to this program are, by definition, relevant to NASA.
General information and overview of this solicitation
See the ROSES Summary of Solicitation.
Detailed instructions for the preparation and submission of proposals
See the 2009 NASA Guidebook for Proposers at http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/procurement/nraguidebook/.
Submission medium
Electronic proposal submission is required; no hard copy is required or permitted. See also Section IV of the ROSES Summary of Solicitation and Chapter 3 of the 2009 NASA Guidebook for Proposers.
Web site for submission of proposal via NSPIRES
http://nspires.nasaprs.com/ (help desk available at nspires-help@nasaprs.com or (202) 479-9376)
Web site for submission of proposal via Grants.gov
http://grants.gov (help desk available at support@grants.gov or (800) 518-4726)
Funding opportunity number for downloading an application package from Grants.gov
NNH09ZDA001N-CCMSC
NASA point of contact concerning this program
Dr. Mary Mellott
Heliophysics Division
Science Mission Directorate
NASA Headquarters
Washington, DC 20546-0001
Telephone: (202) 358-0893
E-mail: Mary.M.Mellott@nasa.

2009-03-07T15:23:00.000-08:00

Space weather 3/7/09
Tiny sunspot 1014 is a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Still No sunspots

2009-03-03T19:38:00.000-08:00

Space Weather.com March 3, 2009

With no sunspots in sight, the face of the sun is blank and dull. The edge of the sun, on the other hand, is pretty lively.

Low Solar Activity Dims Northern Lights

2009-02-25T09:27:00.000-08:00

Anchorage Daily News Feb 24,2009

Low solar activity dims the northern lights
Aurora scholar Neal Brown, who directs UAF's Alaska Space Grant Program, said the low in the current solar cycle is the most dramatic he has witnessed during his time in Fairbanks.

"I've lived here for 45 years, and we've had four solar cycles, and this is the worst one for me," Brown said. "It's just been pitiful. I don't think there's been three or maybe four half-hour to hour-long displays this winter.

1013 Sunspot

2009-02-25T07:39:00.000-08:00

Space Weather.com Feb 25,2009

NEW SUNSPOT: The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) is monitoring a sunspot now forming in the sun's northern hemisphere. The spot's high latitude and magnetic polarity identify it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Readers, if you have a solar telescope, now is the time to watch sunspot genesis in action.

THE SOLAR CONNECTION by Professor Will Alexander February 22, 2009

2009-02-22T16:58:00.000-08:00

Background on our solar system.

THE SOLAR CONNECTION by Professor Will Alexander February 22, 2009

"It had been noted previously that there were linkages between sunspot numbers and famines dating back to 1810."

"The IPCC’s position is that solar energy received on earth is sensibly constant and that all anomalies (pages full of them), are therefore a consequence of human activities. As I demonstrate in this memo this view is fundamentally in error. The source of the error is the IPCC’s reliance on process theory instead of observation theory which is the basis of the engineering sciences."

He also attaches the following paper
Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development*

"The analysis of this data demonstrates an unequivocal synchronous linkage
between these processes in South Africa and elsewhere, and solar activity"

"It is extremely important that all those
involved with water resource studies should
appreciate that there are fundamental flaws
in current global climate models used for
climate change applications."

23 consecutive spotless days

2009-02-12T20:04:00.000-08:00

23 consecutive spotless days

"A sunspot is emerging near the sun's eastern limb. The spot's low latitude and magnetic polarity identify it as a fossil from old Solar Cycle 23. This breaks a string of 23 consecutive spotless days beginning on Jan. 20th."

Where are the updated predictions from NASA and NOAA?

Deep Solar Minimum

2009-02-11T23:13:00.000-08:00

NASA noting "deep minimum"

Space Weather Feb 12, 2009
Yesterday, Feb. 10th at 2310 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a B1-class solar flare. Normally, such a small eruption would pass unremarked, but during this deep solar minimum, it's a relatively big event. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed the probable blast-site shortly before and after the eruption:

Emerging sunspot 1012 is a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Cosmic rays and temperature of the stratosphere

2009-01-23T11:41:00.000-08:00

Very intriguing information posted on Watts Up With That, Jan 22, 2009.

The topline is:
this remarkable study shows how the number of high-energy cosmic-rays reaching a detector deep underground, closely matches temperature measurements in the upper atmosphere (known as the stratosphere). For the first time, scientists have shown how this relationship can be used to identify weather events that occur very suddenly in the stratosphere during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Sun Spot History

2009-01-23T10:18:00.000-08:00

you can investigate the relationship between solar activity and many historical events by looking at the sunspot record at the following link

Sun Spot plotter at:

http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm?PHPSESSID=a7catpl1eecj06qpedjgj4gaq7

It is more interesting to plug in today's day, or a date around the prior maxima 2000-2001

State of the Sun for year end 2008: all’s quiet on the solar front - too quiet

2009-01-04T19:49:00.000-08:00

It is unfortunate when a person needs to go to sources other than NASA or NOAA to get a summary on sun spots. A better summary of the current state of the sun can be found at
From Watts Up With That

State of the Sun for year end 2008: all’s quiet on the solar front - too quiet

Excerpts include:
"Sunspots are still not following either of the two predictive curves, and it appears that the solar dynamo continues to slumber, perhaps even winding down further."

"Looking at the SWPC graph ...., it appears that we are in uncharted territory now, since the both the high and low cycle 24 predictions appear to be falsified for the current time frame. No new cycle 24 predictions have been issued by any solar group in the last couple of months. The last time NASA made a change was in October 08."

2008 Sun has 266 Spotless Days

2009-01-04T19:36:00.000-08:00

From Space Weather Jan 3, 2009
"SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Final sunspot counts for the year 2008 are now available and the numbers are very low. The sun was utterly blank--that is, it had no sunspots whatsoever--on 266 days last year. That makes 2008 a century-class year in terms of low sunspot numbers. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days. Now for the good news: Evidence is mounting that the deep solar minimum of 2008 is coming to an end; we can expect a livelier sun in 2009"

They link to the Nov 9, 2008 article where Hathaway states:
""I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

You can also review Hathaway's recent track record in our prior post Nov 8, 2008 post.

Hathaway - Start of Cycle 24; Dec 9, 2008

2008-12-09T10:40:00.000-08:00

We've previously posted Hathaway's track record on solar predictions over the last 5 years.

Today they add to their predictions:

From SpaceWeather.com Dec 9, 2008
COLOR-CODED SUNSPOTS: According to a leading solar physicist, the sun is turning blue. David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is using red and blue to tag sunspots of the old and new solar cycles. When he plots color-coded sunspot numbers, it's clear a change is taking place:

"New Solar Cycle 24 is on the upswing while old Solar Cycle 23 is decaying," he says. The sun is still in the pits of a deep solar minimum, but the little blue bars in Hathaway's plot show that it won't last forever. An increasing number of new-cycle sunspots in the months ahead should propel the sun out of the doldrums, eventually leading to a full-fledged Solar Max around 2012.

Hathaway - End to Solar Minimum - Nov 7, 2008

2008-12-05T06:58:00.000-08:00

Nov 7, NASA
Nov. 7, 2008: After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life.

"I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

Dec 5, 2008
NO SUN SPOTS

"Magnetic fields are pushing through the surface of the sun today, producing a pair of planet-sized dipoles with the potential to form sunspots...... The high-latitude and magnetic polarity of these "proto-sunspots" identify them as members of new Solar Cycle 24. Even if they fail to coelesce into truly dark-cored sunspots, they are still significant. They remind us that Cycle 24 is approaching and the eerie quiet of solar minimum won't last forever. Readers, if you have a solar telescope, target the proto-sunspots for a sign of things to come."

NOAA and NASA Sunspot Data

2008-11-24T16:19:00.000-08:00

Why have NOAA or NASA not updated their sunspot predictions?

As previously noted, you can look at the current sunspots at: http://www.spaceweather.com/
Again today, no sunspots?

The NOAA solar progression page today:http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Solar Wind Rips Up Martian Atmosphere

2008-11-22T17:16:00.000-08:00

NASA Nov 21, 2008
The solar wind appears to be ripping big chunks of air from the atmosphere of Mars. This could help solve a longstanding mystery about the Red Planet:

History of Cycle 24 Predictions

2008-11-08T18:13:00.000-08:00

Nov 8, 2008: New-cycle sunspot 1007 has disappeared over the sun's western limb.

It is informative to review the solar model predictions for cycle 24 sunspots.

NASA May 20, 2003
Hathaway predicts cycle 24 to begin Dec 2006

NASA Oct 2004
"Hathaway and colleague Bob Wilson, both working at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, believe they've found a simple way to predict the date of the next solar minimum. "So, using Hathaway and Wilson's simple rule, solar minimum should arrive in late 2006. That's about a year earlier than previously thought. It'll give us a chance to see if our 'spotless sun' method for predicting solar minimum really works.""

September 15, 2005
"Actually, solar minimum, the lowest point of the sun's 11-year activity cycle, isn't due until 2006..... Hathaway is waiting for 2006 when solar minimum finally arrives."

NOAA Jan 6, 2006
The next sunspot minimum is forecast to occur in late 2006 through mid 2007.

March 6, 2006
For almost the entire month of February 2006 the sun was utterly blank. What's going on? NASA solar physicist David Hathaway explains: "Solar minimum has arrived."

NASA March 10, 2006
March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived.
"This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."
"Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."
"he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""

March 2006
That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong - perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.

NASA August 15, 2006
"We've been waiting for this," says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight in Huntsville, Alabama. "A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning." The next cycle, Solar Cycle 24, should begin "any time now," returning the sun to a stormy state.

NASA Dec 21, 2006
"Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."
"Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco."

"According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."

Dec 14, 2007 NASA
It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

NOAA April 25, 2007
"The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March [2008] and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"

NOAA April 27, 2007
NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE
"Expected to start last fall [2007], the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker."
“The Space Environment Center’s space weather alerts, warnings, and forecasts are a critical component of NOAA’s seamless stewardship of the Earth’s total environment, from the Sun to the sea,” said retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., NOAA administrator."
Jan 2008; First sunspot of Cycle 24 - "Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun."
With the appearance of Sunspot 981 -- a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot -- on Friday, January 4, experts at NASA and NOAA said that Cycle 24 is now here.

"This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of the Space Weather Prediction Center, part of NOAA. "In this case, it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years."
"NASA's Hathaway, along with colleague Robert Wilson at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco last month, said that Solar Cycle 24 "looks like it's going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago."

NASA March 28, 2008
"Barely three months after forecasters announced the beginning of new Solar Cycle 24, old Solar Cycle 23 has returned."

NOAA & NASA June 27, 2008
"The panel expects solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012."

NASA July 11, 2008
"The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."
"There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."
"some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year."

"It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."

November 7, 2008, NASA
"After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

"From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days."

Yuma Sun - 1,500 year climate cycles

2008-11-06T18:54:00.000-08:00

From the Yuma Sun

"However, evidence of the past 30,000 years linking earth's temperatures to the sun's irradiance (sun spot activity) also shows the 1,500 year cycle. Sunspot activity occurs in 87-year and 210-year cycles, together totaling 197 years. Five such cycles total 1,485 years."

Oct 18 solar Conditions

2008-10-18T20:38:00.000-07:00

SPACE WEATHER
Current conditions

Solar wind
speed: 281.9 km/sec
density: 0.3 protons/cm³
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 0326 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A0 2355 UT Oct18
24-hr: A6 1200 UT Oct18
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2355 UT

Daily Sun: 18 Oct 08
New-cycle sunspot 1006 is disappearing over the sun's western limb. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 17 Oct. 2008

Solar activity very low

2008-10-18T20:35:00.000-07:00

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2008 Oct 18 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. An A9 X-ray flare occurred
at 18/1200Z with no obvious optical flare association. The visible
disk was spotless. Region 1006 (N26W91) rotated out of view during
the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (19 - 21
October).

Geomagnetic Storm

2008-10-13T15:09:00.000-07:00

From spaceweather.com for 10.13

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: This weekend when magnetometer needles began to swing at the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway, researcher Rob Stammes knew something was up. "A geomagnetic storm was underway."

The storm began on Oct. 11th when a solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field. Stammes' magnetometer recorded the impact and subsequent reverberations, which lasted for hours. In the chart recording, above, red shows how the local magnetic field was swinging back and forth while blue denotes electrical currents surging through the ground in response. Outside, Northern Lights were pulsating in sych with the chart recorder's colored pens. "The ground current fluctuated with a 5-to-10 second period; the visible auroras were switching on and off in the same way," he says. "It was a really special sight."

Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age

2008-10-04T19:54:00.000-07:00

NASA Sept 30,2008

Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age. As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."

And it is a very quiet time. If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.

"There is also the matter of solar irradiance," adds Pesnell. "Researchers are now seeing the dimmest sun in their records. The change is small, just a fraction of a percent, but significant. Questions about effects on climate are natural if the sun continues to dim." Coinciding with the string of blank suns is a 50-year record low in solar wind pressure, a recent discovery of the Ulysses spacecraft.

Study: Solar Wind Influenced Cosmic Rays Not CFCs Produce Ozone Hole

2008-09-28T13:27:00.000-07:00

Study: Solar Wind Influenced Cosmic Rays Not CFCs Produce Ozone Hole
From ICECAP Sept 25, 2008

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion at University of Waterloo
Lu says that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion.
New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month
But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role.

See prior post
Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low

Sunspot 1002

2008-09-24T20:41:00.000-07:00

SpaceWeather.com
A small sunspot emerges, flickers, and fades away in less than 48 hours, gathering attention once reserved for Jupiter-sized behemoths. Welcome to solar minimum.

The orientation of the sunspot's magnetic field identified it as a member Cycle 24. Because the year 2008 has brought so many blank suns, some observers have wondered if we are ever going to climb out of the ongoing deep solar minimum.

Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low

2008-09-24T13:23:00.001-07:00

Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
Excerpts include:
"The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s," says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. "This is the weakest it's been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago."

The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

"The solar wind isn't inflating the heliosphere as much as it used to," says McComas. "That means less shielding against cosmic rays." In addition to weakened solar wind, "Ulysses also finds that the sun's underlying magnetic field has weakened by more than 30% since the mid-1990s," says Posner. "This reduces natural shielding even more."

Basic Solar Properties

2008-09-14T22:46:00.000-07:00

From University of Tennessee Astronomy 162

Basic Solar Properties
Diameter (photosphere)	1,391,980 km
Mass	1.99 x 10³³ g
Average Density	1.41 g/cm³
Luminosity	3.83 x 10³³ erg/sec
Rotation Period	25 days (equator)
Surface Temperature	5,800 K (effective)
Spectral Class	G2 V
Apparent Visual Magnitude	- 26.7
Absolute Visual Magnitude	+ 4.8
Mean Distance (Earth)	149,597,892 km