A Quiet Sun, a Cold Winter

A Quiet Sun, a Cold Winter

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a colder-than-normal winter. One contributing factor is sunspots—or the lack of them!

This year and next, sunspot activity will be very, very light. Whenever this phenomenon has occurred in the past, the result has been a cooling influence on Earth. Solar experts believe that the Sun will remain calm for another year.
See sunspot activity for 2009.

Additionally from the Old Farmers Almanac
In 2008, the Sun set some new records:

* A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Decreased solar winds allow more galactic cosmic rays into the inner solar system. This poses health risk for astronauts. Another effect is fewer aurorae, or northern lights, on Earth.
* A 12-year low in solar "irradiance": The sun's diminished brightness has already lead to a dramatic decrease in extreme UV wavelengths. This means that Earth's upper atmosphere is less heated by the Sun, which may lead to a slight global cooling. Another effect is that satellites operate longer due to less atmospheric drag. Space junk, however, stays in orbit longer (a risk to satellites).
* A 55-year low in solar radio emissions: Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field.

Helio Magnetic Field since 1835

From Watts Up with That

http://www.leif.org/research/IDV09.pdf

Excerpts include:
we appear to be at the lowest heliomagnetic field strength in the record

Cycle 23 looks remarkably like cycle 13, including the very deep solar minimum following both cycles, likely presaging a weak cycle 24 as predicted from the solar polar fields [Svalgaard et al., 2005]. It is clear that we are returning to conditions prevailing a century ago. It seems likely that other solar parameters such as Total Solar Irradiance [Fröhlich, 2009] and cosmic ray modulation [Steinhilber et al.,2009] are reverting to similar conditions.

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High

NASA Sept 29, 2009
Excerpts include:
"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech.
The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times,

1. The sun's magnetic field is weak. "There has been a sharp decline in the sun's interplanetary magnetic field down to 4 nT (nanoTesla) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT," he says.

2. The solar wind is flagging. "Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low,"

Solar wind heating Earth

UCLA Newsroom
Scientists discover surprise in Earth's upper atmosphere

Excerpts include:
UCLA atmospheric scientists have discovered a previously unknown basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere

The sun, in addition to emitting radiation, emits a stream of ionized particles called the solar wind that affects the Earth and other planets in the solar system. The solar wind, which carries the particles from the sun's magnetic field, known as the interplanetary magnetic field......Charged particles carry currents, which cause significant modifications in the Earth's magnetosphere

"The energy of the particles and the fields in the magnetosphere can vary by large amounts. It can be 10 times higher or 10 times lower from day to day, even from half-hour to half-hour.

"So rather than the picture of the connection between the magnetic field of the sun and the Earth controlling the transfer of energy by the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere, something else is happening that is equally interesting.

Aug 28,2009 No Sunspots

From SpaceWeather.com

August 28th, today. But it could have been taken on any day of the past seven weeks. For all that time, the face of the sun has looked exactly the same--utterly blank.

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest string of blank suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days back in July, Aug. and Sept. of 2008. If the current trend continues for only four more days, the record will shift to 2009. It's likely to happen; the sun remains eerily quiet and there are no sunspots in the offing. Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 48 days
2009 total: 190 days (79%)
Since 2004: 701 days

Solar wind
speed: 333.0 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3

ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING?

SpaceWeather.com August 22,2009
ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING? Sunspots are made of magnetism. The "firmament" of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun's fiery depths. Without magnetism, there would be no sunspots.
According to Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, sunspot magnetic fields are waning. The two respected solar astronomers have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992.

Extrapolating their data into the future suggests that sunspots could completely disappear within decades. While the data of Livingston and Penn are widely thought to be correct, far-reaching extrapolations may be premature.


Also note:
QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. The sun is entering its 43rd consecutive day with no sunspots, and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 42 days
2009 total: 184 days (79%)
Since 2004: 695 days

Solar wind
speed: 514.1 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?
EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
July 29,2009

Excerpts include:
But something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle.

although the Sun’s magnetic polarity has reversed and the new solar cycle has been detected, most of the new cycle’s spots have been tiny “pores” without penumbrae

Four years after the first draft paper, the predicted cycle- independent dearth in
sunspot numbers has proven accurate.